11:30 AM UPDATE
We're watching the mercury closely to see if we will have yet another day at 90 degrees. At 11 AM, the temperature in the Hartford area just reached into the 80s. We will, therefore hold onto our forecast of upper-80s, just missing the necessary 90 for a continuation of the heatwave. It'll be close, though, and a 90 degree day could happen, especially if the clouds stay sparse and no shower forms near the thermometer at Bradley.
Yes, we think the weekend will be quite wet at times. See the discussion below.
Have a great weekend!
YESTERDAY, NOAA RELEASED THEIR UPDATED HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST…
The forecast has been revised downward due to a high probability of a developing El Nino in the Pacific. This will likely suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the latter part of the season. Plus, sea surface temperatures remain much cooler than average in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Tropical storms and hurricanes need warm water to intensify and maintain strength. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air, and greater stability in the atmosphere could further suppress tropical storms and hurricanes.
NOAA is now forecasting 9-13 tropical storms (average 12), of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (average 6), and 0-2 will become major hurricanes (average 3). The forecast at the beginning of the season was calling for 10-16 tropical storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes.
We’ve already had 4 named storms this season, including 2 hurricanes. They are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby. The hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. We are now entering the peak of the hurricane season, from August through October.
THE 3RD HEAT WAVE OF 2018 GOES TO DAY 5…
Our heat wave has now lasted 5 days! It began on Sunday when the temperature reached 91 degrees. The high on Monday was 93 degrees. The heat wave became official Tuesday when the temperature reached 93 degrees, and the high was 91 degrees Wednesday. Yesterday the temp reached 90 degrees at Bradley. Yesterday marked our 25th day this year with a high of a least 90 degrees at Bradley International Airport.
At least the humidity dropped to slightly more comfortable levels yesterday. Dew points fell into the low and middle 60s across much of the state by the afternoon.
Today will generally be nice. The northwesterly flow will keep us dry today, although a few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon. We can expect partly to mostly sunny skies, moderate humidity, and highs in the upper 80s. There is a slight chance the temperature will reach 90 degrees at Bradley International. If that happens, then the heat wave will be extended to a 6th day.
A WET AND COOL WEEKEND…
Over the weekend, high pressure will be centered over New England, but a front and low pressure will be draped just to our south. Additionally, a slow moving trough will develop in the upper regions of the atmosphere. As a result, Saturday is looking quite wet. Showers will become numerous and the rain could be heavy at times. There is even a chance for some thunder, although the risk of severe weather will be low. Localized flooding is possible. Clouds, rain, and an east to northeasterly wind means tomorrow will be quite cool with highs only in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Sunday probably won’t be quite as wet, but showers are likely along with plenty of clouds. As a result, temperatures probably won’t rise out of the 70s.
This is going to be a very slow moving weather pattern that will show little movement through Tuesday. Therefore, showers are in the forecast for Monday, and showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Tuesday. There could be some locally heavy rainfall both days. The air will turn a little warmer and a lot more humid, especially by Tuesday. We are forecasting highs in the lower 80s both days.
We should get a break from the rain on Wednesday, although a lingering shower or two can’t be ruled out. With more sunshine, temperatures should reach the upper 80s. The humidity may drop a little.
A cold front will approach New England on Thursday and that means showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. Overall, it should be a partly sunny, warm day with highs in the 80s.
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney
CONFIRMED TORNADO IN WOODSTOCK SATURDAY…
Saturday morning began with stormy weather that included the fifth confirmed, EF- rated tornado in Connecticut for the year. The National Weather Service has reported that it was a weak and small tornado, with a width of eight yards and a path length of only one block with maximum wind of 80 MPH. It did damage to a few cornfields and an oak tree before lifting back into the sky. The same storm produced a “high end EF-1 tornado” that caused considerable damage to downtown Webster, Massachusetts.
The month of July is over and there were impressive statistics! The average temperature at Bradley International Airport will come in at or close to 76.1 degrees, which is 2.5 degrees warmer than normal. That means this July will be the 8th warmest on record for the Greater Hartford Area, and records date back to 1905. That is quite impressive! We had 11 days that were 90 degrees or higher. The hottest day was July 1st when the high temperature was 98 degrees at Bradley. Temperatures were in the 90s the first 5 days of July, concluding a heat wave (which began in late June) that lasted a total of 7 days.
The first half of July was dry, but the second half was quite wet. Total rainfall for the month was 6.39”, which is 2.21” above normal.
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